SINGLE BET VS PARLAY
Even before we have made a bet, the bookmakers are already with “advantage”. The reasons are so many... The main one is the margin rates. We have to learn and get better night and day – this is the only solution. It comes with the using of the different approaches for money management, using techniques like Asian Handicap etc., not only the experience.
Risk of multiple bets (parlay)
The main reason for using single bets is the amount of the risk – it is significantly less when you bet on single bets. The pure Math shows this – if we have possibilities of several events, then the probability of guessing and winning all of them is calculated this way: We multiply the possibilities by each one. In other words, 2.00 odd is approximately 50% possibility, as we know. If I have 3 games with 2.00 odd then the possibility of my bet to be winning on multiple bet “falls” on 12.5%. The risk is quite different and complex category and you are going to need an actuary to calculate it. But one thing we know for sure – using multiple bets increases your risk couple of times. The risk here can be considered as usual probability – if both games have possibility to be “guessed” 50 percent, than their combination does not give 25 percent possibility. The risk on multiple bets rises exponentially! In this case, it depends on subjective factors, as well. Most of all, how you will choose to combine your bets/games. Simple example is when you have 6 games and combine them in 3 ‘doubles’ – you get 4 games. Then, you are going to have 1 winning bet or 2 losing if we look at the biggest possibility. Until on single bets 4 of 6 games means win. The fact is this:
The risk of using parlay is complex and rises exponential which means that the percent of your winning and winning bets reduces by several times compare with using single bets.
The bookmakers’ margin
We wrote an article about all the specifics of the bookmakers’ margin. The simplest explained it is an added value. As any other product that have added value from which the company has a win (understand that it is a value over the price about the producing of the product or service), the bookmakers has its own, too. The most common situation varies about 7-13% (10% is taken for a middle value) which means that for every set 100$, the bookmaker wins 10$. By using a double bet the margin of the bookmaker automatically becomes double – 20$! As we mentioned above, the risk rises much more and the possibility ‘falls’ so the bookmakers has an opportunity to add more margin than the usual one by multiple (parlay) bets. It is not accidently that some bookmakers give bonuses and greater win on big bets and even double it if their ‘clients’ use double, triple or quad etc. bets
Limiting to one Bookmaker
Using multiple bets automatically means using only one bookmaker and how we have written about it before – if you want to optimize your strategy and wins, you need to use the best bookmakers; using only one of them means “missed benefits”. This way, you lose better odds which some of the bookmakers could offer in some cases. The best solution here is to use 3-4 Top Bookmakers and use the competition between them. We are going to play and bet in one of them but there will be cases in which other bookmaker will give you higher odds and you just have to get the benefits of it in one click. Nowadays, it is really easy to open accounts in several bookmakers so comments like “This is too confusing or complicated” are not an apology at all.
Here is some Math to defend our thesis:
Let’s imagine that you make a bet at Bookmaker A. You decide to bet for Arsenal and Liverpool (just for example). You calculate that the value at Arsenal odd is 6% (so the risk is worth it because it is bigger than the risk) but the odd for Liverpool is too low (usually the margin of the bookmakers is 10% and I will get it here for an example). What is happening to your value if you use double bet at Bookmaker A:
1.06 * 0.9 = 0.95
Not only you lose your value but the bookmaker still has its margin – the only thing you do is to decrease the margin but it is away from reasonable.
Let’s have an another case now – we use 4 bookmakers – A, B, C and D. We still have a value at Arsenal bet at Bookmaker A but this time you find an odd which gives you value for Liverpool, as well – no matter if it is 3-4-5% - it is important that you have a chance to use both odds with value. And all of this is because you are not limited by one Bookmaker or multiple bets.
The main reason for people to use multiple bets is the fact that they are looking for fast and huge wins. You cannot think that you can win lots of money easy by this gambling. Unfortunately, people are obsessed of the odds of the bigger bets (10, 15, 30 games) and that hide the reality from them. The truth is that the wins from football, basketball, tennis etc. bets come with a huge discipline, constancy and professionalism. The aim here is to ‘take’ a regular form of wins with constant and smart bets, with good management of money and risk – this cannot be reached by multiple bets!
The main idea in all our articles is to look at the bets more like investments but gambling. This approach could sounds fondly to many people but this is the most secure and disseminated one for everyone who takes this kind of things more seriously. We have always paid attention to elements like Optimizing the wins, higher ROI, Value at the bets, management of the money and others which are all included at the investments.
The truth is one and only –you can use better all elements of the above by single odds. Singles are the way to Optimize your win, to increase it and most important – insurance of permanent and increasing flow of revenue by perseverance and controlled risk. Single is one of the most important elements to good return of the investment.